Wuliangye (000858杭州桑拿) Annual Report 2018 Review: Marketing Reform Accelerates Landing, Actively Seeks Change, Stimulates Vigor
Event: The company released its 2018 annual report. In 2018, the company achieved an operating income of 400.
30,000 yuan, an increase of 32.
6%, net profit attributable to mother 133.
800 million, an increase of 38.
4%, the performance is in line with the pre-announcement.
4Q18 achieved 107 operating income.
80,000 yuan, an increase of 31.
3%, net profit attributable to mother 38.
9 trillion, the same increase of 43.
Net cash flow from initial operations increased by 26.
1%, performing well.
It is planned to pay a cash dividend of 17 yuan for every 10 shares with a dividend rate of 49.
The 18-year performance ended smoothly, and the 19-year goal was aggressive.
The company’s ten-year operating income reached 40 billion yuan, an increase of over 30%, exceeding the initial guidance target.
In terms of business, alcohol revenue was 377.
500 million, an increase of 34.
4%, including high-priced wine income 301.
900 million, an increase of 41.
1%. The actual amount of Wuliangye is expected to slightly exceed the plan of 2 with the same increase of about 20%. The increase in ton price is also close to 20%. The rapid increase in ton price is expected to be mainly due to: 1) Puwu 789 yuan, the price increased by 7%; 2) 1618 and low-grade Wuliangye air tickets increased far more than Puwu and some high-priced series of wine structure significantly increased contribution.
Low and middle-priced wine income 75.
600 million, an increase of 12.
9%, the whole series of wine maintained a steady growth, and the ton price increased by 7.
Since the suspension of the stock market in June 18, the company actively straightened out the channel inventory in the second half of the year. The Q4 channel shipment and sales rhythm was better than Q3, and the sales during the Spring Festival accelerated significantly.
In terms of this year’s goals, the Group proposes to complete the 100 billion target ahead of time and strive to promote the second venture. The company’s revenue target is 50 billion, maintaining a growth rate of about 25%, of which Wuliangye Plan2.
The sales volume of 3 speakers increased by about 15%. Among them, according to the feedback from the Spring Candy Club, Pu has gradually returned to 1 in 50 years.
In five months, Laopu ‘s May-May plan to pay is basically completed. Q1 shipments are expected to be close to 8,000 tons. The collector ‘s version of Wuliangye will be raised to 859 yuan. The eight-generation Puwu new product is expected to be invoiced to 879-889 yuan, so the average price of the Pu Wu factory is about 830 yuan, the price increased by 5.
2%, the remaining Wuliangye series is expected to adjust prices simultaneously, the range may be greater than the Puwu.
The company’s 18-year performance has been successfully closed, and its 19-year revenue and investment volume targets have been positive. The company strives to achieve new marketing reforms through product promotion, digital channel management, and control and distribution models.
The advance receipts performed strongly and profitability improved.
The company’s alcoholic gross margin was 77.
59%, an increase of 0.
88pct, of which the gross margin of high-priced wine is 84.
3%, a slight decrease of 0.
86 points, the gross profit margin of low and medium price wine 50.
77%, an increase of 1.07.
In terms of expense ratio, the sales expense ratio is 9.
4%, down by 2.
6pcts; management expense ratio 5.
8%, down by 1.
7 cases. Since 2017, the continuous decline in the expense ratio indicates that the expense management and operating efficiency have been improved; the increase in the consumption tax rate has led to an increase in the business tax rate3.
2pcs to 14.
Company net profit is 35.
1%, an increase of 1.
7pcts, profitability continues to improve.
The company received advance payment 67 at the end of Q4.
10,000 yuan, an increase of 42.
The 7 trillion performance is strong, mainly because after November, dealers have successively made payments to Lao Puwu in 19 years.
Actively seek change, and channel improvement can be expected.
The company’s actions have been reorganized since the beginning of the company. Before the holiday, it benefited from the high price of Maotai and tight sales. It also increased its promotional efforts and exceeded its expected performance.In March, the brand marketing conference launched an upgraded version of Pu Five, which disclosed the details of digital management and control and distribution policy. The listing of ultra-high-end 501 new products continued to increase brand value.
We believe that the improvement of the marketing structure is conducive to improving the ability of intensive cultivation and quick response to the market. The upgraded version of the Fifth Listing will fully adopt the code-scoring system to achieve refinement and digital channel management. The price system will also be determined to improve.To 820-830 yuan.
Regarding the realization path of the company’s expected growth goals, we believe that the current company actively seeks changes. On the basis of improving brand strength, the focus is on breakthroughs in marketing and channel reforms. Through digital management, the supply chain, channels and consumers are realized.Comprehensive preferences and the operation of the control-distribution model are important changes in the company’s channel management. The strategy execution ability is used to actively and actively increase channel profits, and channel margin improvement is expected.
Profit forecast, estimation, and investment grade: The company’s 18-year performance has been successfully closed, and its 19-year goal has been aggressive. The current company’s marketing reforms are full of momentum, and it has a clear and proactive approach to brand, channel and marketing.Active change is expected to bring channel improvement. In the short term, the approval price will gradually rise. In the medium term, channel integration and management will continue to improve.
We predict the company’s EPS for 2019-2021.
82 yuan (the original 2019-20 forecast 4).
80 yuan), the current expected PE is 21/17/15 times, giving 19 times 25 times PE, raising the target price to 105 yuan, the target market value of 400 billion, maintaining “strong push” rating.
Risk reminders: risks of macroeconomic changes; product demand falls short of expectations; channel reforms fail to meet expectations.